The domestic box office is expected to reach $9 billion in 2025, edging out 2024’s estimated $8.7 billion total. While that’s a hopeful milestone, it remains a shadow of the industry’s pre-pandemic glory. For context, 2019 delivered an $11 billion haul domestically, marking the last time ticket sales hit double digits. Six years later, we’re still chasing the elusive moviegoer who hasn’t returned.
More Movies, More Screens—but Is It Enough?
ComScore projects that 110 films will open in more than 2,000 theaters in 2025, the highest count since 2019. Premium Large Format (PLF) screens are also on the rise. IMAX alone plans to open 120 new locations over the next two years. It’s clear exhibitors are banking on big, immersive experiences to lure audiences back to theaters.
But are more movies and bigger screens the cure? Premium formats now account for up to 50% of opening weekend revenue for tentpoles, but they’re not a silver bullet. If the broader audience isn’t showing up for smaller films or mid-budget titles, the industry risks becoming overly reliant on blockbusters.
The Windows Debate: Streaming’s Persistent Shadow
Despite fears that streaming cannibalizes theatrical revenue, the numbers tell a more nuanced story. Films like Universal’s The Wild Robot and Twisters demonstrated that shorter theatrical windows can still work—when paired with strong opening weekends. Both films transitioned to PVOD within weeks and saw continued box office revenue without massive drop-offs.
Yet, the data reveals a troubling trend: while tentpoles thrive, smaller films struggle to gain traction. A robust opening weekend is critical, but when marketing budgets are slashed, even good movies face an uphill battle. It’s a vicious cycle. Studios save on marketing but lose on box office potential, leaving theaters with fewer hits to sustain long-term momentum.
The $2 Billion Question: Where Are the Moviegoers?
Let’s talk about the elephant in the theater. Even with recovery underway, domestic box office revenue is still $2–$3 billion shy of pre-pandemic levels. And while some audiences have returned, frequent moviegoers—those who once went monthly—remain elusive.
Quorum data shows that the percentage of Americans preferring theaters over streaming has barely budged in two years, hovering around 46%. While premium formats and event films like Deadpool & Wolverine ($636.7M domestic) draw crowds, the average movie struggles to clear a meaningful bar.
2025: A Blockbuster Year Ahead?
This year promises an impressive slate of tentpoles, from James Gunn’s Superman: Legacy to Jurassic World Rebirth. With 38 wide summer releases—including major IP like Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning—studios are betting big on proven franchises.
But blockbusters alone can’t carry the box office. The industry’s long-term health depends on supporting mid-budget and original films. Hits like Longlegs ($22.4M opening) and It Ends With Us ($50M debut) show that smart marketing can turn modest budgets into box office success. Yet, the pressure to minimize risk means studios often underspend on smaller titles, leaving potential hits to wither.
The Industry’s Existential Challenge
To truly revive moviegoing, studios and exhibitors need to collaborate on a unified strategy. Some marketing executives propose a massive ad campaign to reignite excitement for theaters. Others suggest studios should co-invest in expanding PLF screens, much like they did with 3D technology in the late 2000s.
Ultimately, the industry’s survival hinges on delivering great films that demand to be seen on the big screen. 2025 may not solve all of Hollywood’s problems, but with the right moves, it could mark another step toward recovery.
“Follow the money, follow the story.”
