Sonic is proving once again that speed kills—at the box office, at least. Paramount’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3 sprinted to a strong $25.7 million opening day across 3,761 theaters in North America, easily outpacing Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, which debuted to $13.3 million from 4,100 locations.
This wasn’t supposed to be such a lopsided race. Heading into the weekend, both films were pegged as family-friendly juggernauts with broad appeal. But Sonic 3 is turning what some expected to be a close match into a blowout, coming tantalizingly close to the $26 million opening day of its predecessor, Sonic 2. With projections already looking strong, the Blue Blur could easily shatter its $55–60 million opening weekend forecast.
The Hedgehog’s Winning Formula
It’s shaping up to be a banner start for Sonic 3, a $122 million production helmed once again by Jeff Fowler. Featuring the return of Ben Schwartz as Sonic, Idris Elba as Knuckles, and Jim Carrey as the scene-stealing Dr. Robotnik, the threequel introduces a fan-favorite adversary: Shadow the Hedgehog (voiced by none other than Keanu Reeves).
What’s powering this performance? First, stellar word-of-mouth. Sonic 3 has an impressive A grade from CinemaScore, matching the high marks of its predecessors. Second, timing: the holiday season offers a long runway for kids on winter break and families seeking entertainment. Third, its niche. Paramount has tapped into a goldmine by delivering consistently fun, video game-driven family films—territory that remains underserved.
‘Mufasa’ Plays Second Fiddle
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King isn’t roaring quite as loudly. Its $13.3 million opening day pales in comparison to the $191 million domestic debut of its 2019 predecessor. While that comparison feels a bit unfair (December openings are always slower than summer), the A- CinemaScore for Mufasa is another step down from the 2019 Lion King’s A.
At more than $200 million in production costs, this prequel—directed by Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)—has a steep hill to climb. Disney is betting heavily on the film’s international appeal to save the day, as Mufasa is expected to dominate overseas where the Lion King brand is a global phenomenon. The 2019 remake pulled in over $1 billion internationally, and Mufasa could still find its footing abroad. But for now, it’s trailing far behind the domestic champion.
The Rest of the Pack
Disney’s Moana 2 continues to impress, adding $3 million on Friday to push its North American total past $350 million. By the end of the weekend, it should surpass Despicable Me 4 ($361 million) to claim the fourth-highest domestic gross of the year. Worldwide, Moana 2 has now sailed past $725 million.
Meanwhile, Universal’s Wicked continues its magical run, adding $14 million in its fifth weekend. With a domestic total nearing $384 million, the film is on track to pass $400 million by the end of the holiday season.
Angel Studios’ Homestead, a faith-based drama doubling as a stealth TV pilot, rounds out the top five with $2.8 million on Friday and a projected $5 million opening weekend. However, its B CinemaScore signals tepid audience reception—unusual for Angel Studios, which typically commands higher grades.
Sony’s Kraven the Hunter continues its freefall, dropping 72% in its second weekend to land at seventh place. The Marvel antihero feature is now trailing behind the fifth weekend of Gladiator II, which has passed $150 million domestically.
What’s Next?
As Sonic 3 races toward a likely franchise-best holiday multiplier, Mufasa will need international markets to justify its hefty budget. Meanwhile, the holiday box office remains competitive, with Moana 2, Wicked, and Gladiator II continuing to hold their ground.
The takeaway? December might not deliver a billion-dollar blockbuster this year, but smart programming, strong word-of-mouth, and solid franchises are keeping the box office alive and well.
“Follow the money, follow the story.”
