It’s a classic tale of speed versus pride. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is projected to debut at $55–$60 million from 3,800 North American theaters, just ahead of Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King, which should trot close behind with $50 million from over 4,000 venues. But don’t count Mufasa out. While Sonic waits for its international release on Christmas Day, Disney’s prequel is expected to roar globally with an additional $130 million, pushing its worldwide debut to a strong $180 million.
The Numbers Behind the Race
Neither film is breaking franchise opening weekend records, but December is the long game. Consider Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2017): it opened with just $36 million and climbed to $404 million domestically, $962 million globally. Even last year’s Wonka started at $39 million and tapped out at $218 million domestically and $634 million worldwide.
For Sonic 3, a trilogy-low debut is less alarming when you remember the calendar. Holiday releases thrive on word-of-mouth and repeat viewings. Add to that Sonic’s built-in goodwill—thanks to its 2020 surprise hit status and the sequel’s $405 million global haul—and this speedy blue hedgehog could still win the long race.
Meanwhile, Mufasa comes with a hefty $200 million price tag, leaving Disney banking on strong legs through the holiday season. The 2019 Lion King remake (also with mixed reviews) launched at $191 million domestically and roared to $1.66 billion globally, proving this Pride Lands saga has staying power.
CinemaScore and Audience Sentiment
While Sonic 3 is expected to capture the domestic crown, audience sentiment could shape the weeks ahead. CinemaScore has been a reliable pulse-check for franchises like this, and while Sonic and Mufasa haven’t received grades yet, prior entries hint at trends. The 2020 Sonic earned an A, and its sequel matched that. If Sonic 3 can keep that streak alive, expect solid multipliers into January. For Mufasa, a score below an A would cast doubt on its ability to recoup its budget—though Disney’s marketing machine is adept at weathering criticism.
The Storylines Within the Numbers
Jeff Fowler returns to direct Sonic the Hedgehog 3, bringing back Ben Schwartz (Sonic), Idris Elba (Knuckles), and Colleen O’Shaughnessey (Tails). This time, the trio teams up with a reluctant Dr. Robotnik (Jim Carrey) to take on Shadow the Hedgehog. With a budget of $122 million, Sonic 3 will need to harness holiday momentum to beat its predecessors’ global runs: $319 million for the original and $405 million for the sequel.
On the Disney side, Barry Jenkins (Moonlight) helms Mufasa, diving into the formative years of the Pride Lands’ future king. Featuring music by Lin-Manuel Miranda and a star-studded voice cast, including Aaron Pierre (young Mufasa) and Kelvin Harrison Jr. (young Scar), the film is poised to continue Disney’s golden streak. But it needs to roar louder than its $200 million budget to turn a profit.
Holiday Box Office Forecast
With no Avatar: The Way of Water or Spider-Man: No Way Home to anchor the season, theater owners are hoping holiday holdovers like Wicked, Moana 2, and Gladiator II can shrink the year-to-date deficit (domestic ticket sales are down 4.8% from 2023 and 23% from pre-pandemic 2019).
For now, Sonic leads the domestic race, while Mufasa builds its kingdom abroad. Whether either can dominate January remains to be seen, but if there’s one thing we know about the holidays, it’s this: slow and steady doesn’t win the box office—it’s all about staying fast and furious.
“Follow the money, follow the story.”
